a few parts. the rapture is a racket, but don't worry, it's not the end of the world. i'm john fugelsang. we'll see you next week. ♪ >> jennifer: i'm jennifer grandholm tonight in "the war room." debate? what debate? >> 40 straight months with unemployment above 8%? >> 8.2%. >> jennifer: america gets the jobs report, the president gets a political boost and mitt romney loses two of his favorite talking points. >> now and then you are going to say something that does not come out right. >> and to all of those hidden video donors, i would like to welcome you to the mitt romney flip flop support group.

we have meetings every tuesday. ♪ >> jennifer: william edwards demming, he is a 20th century management guru he coined the phrase in god we trust, all others bring data. it has since been the guiding principal of countless ceos from general election to google. well the republicans may need a knew principal. remember these numbers? 42 million versus 24 million. those numbers are from a bloomberg study showing over the last 50 years, democrats created

nearly twice as many jobs as republicans did. that is significant data. those are some cold hard facts. well today, that data got stronger. the unemployment rate dropped to 7.8%, which is the lowest since the president first took office. sure, i know. we need to do better, but the data is the data. progress is being made. the president's strategies are moving us in the right direction. that is the data, those are the facts. but republicans don't like those facts, so they are either undermining the recovery as mitt romney did today when he said this. >> romney: the reason it has come down this year is primarily due to the fact more and more people have just stopped looking for work. but if the same share of people were participating in the work

force today as when the president got elected our unemployment would be around 11%. >> jennifer: so they are either undermining the recovery or there must be a conspiracy. with the day that that fails to support their policies the right has resorted to conspiracy, and who better to show how far the so-called party of business has fallen than jack welsh, romney support and former ceo of general electric a titan of capitalism. today he traded in his green eye shades for a tin hat and tweeted this . . . >> jennifer: and then just in case you rubbed your guys in disbelief -- he didn't really just say that bureau of labor

statistics is cooking the books for president obama would you. then he doubled down on it on tv. >> it just defies the imagination to have a surge larger than -- any surge since 1983 a month before the election. i leave it to you to do all of the analysis. these numbers defy logic. you don't think it is coincidental that we have got the biggest surge since 1983 in the job surge? come on, chris. >> jennifer: jack, jack jack. how the mighty have fallen. they don't like the data, so instead of re-examine mining their ideas, they are conjuring up conspiracies that wouldn't pass the x-files.

this nonsense almost isn't even worth a response except unchecked fox news might turn it into, quote unquote, fact. the retail is this the economy is headed in the right direction, and that -- and that sadly is a fact you can trust. for some actual analysis and perspective and context, we are going to turn to laura tyson who is the former chair of economic advise source and we are excited because you also current tv's economic advisor. thank you so much for joining us inside "the war room" again. >> thank you jennifer. >> jennifer: so tell me what is your perspective on jack wellish's theory that the bureau

of labor statistics is cooking the books? >> it's utter nonsense and it is a charge against some of the most dedicated loyal people in government who spent month after month year after year doing serious statistical work and he is calling their reputation and credibility into question based on nothing. i was responsible for getting those numbers. we got those on a thursday evening at a certain time when the federal reserve got them we had essentially a very short time to analyze them, and write a report, which the next day the administration, us, made public. when the bureau of labor statistics made the numbers public. there was absolutely never a whisper of advance information. an exchange of information from the top down or bottom up.

this was all done in a completely controlled way. >> jennifer: there was a "washington post" report about the security precautions that surround this bureau of labor statistics, and this is what the quote was, and of course you have just confirmed this, essentially . . . >> jennifer: i mean really those are some precautions. >> right. right. this was -- essentially this data is incredibly important to global markets around the world, to business decision-making

around the world, political outcomes around the world. it needs to be done in a secure way, where there is no question at any point of political manipulation. it is simply must too important of a number. so of course they had those kinds of procedures and they had an absolute chain of when the numbers went up at exactly what time. and there was no ability to ask questions about those numbers during this period or any other period. you didn't ask questions, you didn't give directives you waited to receive the numbers that were developed in that secure way. >> jennifer: all right. and of course if you were manipulating the numbers, you would have probably brought it down a long time ago, right? >> that's what i really want to say. i feel that actually mr. welsh must apologize for this. i feel that this -- that these people -- this process, this

credibility that has been built into the system and carried out by people generation after generation, for him to call this into question based on nothing except his supposition, perhaps because that's the way ge behaved, i don't know -- >> jennifer: well there was an sec investigation -- >> he has no evidence of this -- >> jennifer: i think it is a deliberate way of trying to say that this is cooking the books. and in that case, you are right -- he should stand up and apologize to people -- >> whatever his motives he needs to apologize. >> jennifer: let's switch quickly, because the underlying story is a really good news story, which they were trying to take away from. what is your analysis of the numbers? >> there were several parts of this report that were good us in. we start with the unemployment rate because that is in some

ways the most visible number that people know. but i want to start with the employment numbers. this was another month of steady employment growth. we now have the 31 straight months, the 5.2 million private sector jobs. we had substantial upward revisions in the july and august job numbers. we also have stronger than expected average hourly earnings growth. we have stronger than expected hours, so we had more workers working, working more hours -- >> but what about mitt romney's talking point that more people have checked out of the work force and that if in fact they were working or seeking actively it would be 11% unemployment. >> what is really interesting about the drop this unemployment this month is that it was the result of a very large reported employment increase and a large

increase in the civilian employment. -- employed population. so you had the employment increase and the increase in number of people that were entering the work force. >> jennifer: so it wasn't a dropping out -- >> no it was a bigger surge of job creation. that doesn't mean -- again, we have work to do. the labor force participation rate still needs to couple a bit. the employment to population level, which is actually at a three-month high is still creeping up, but the point is, that observation about today's numbers was just wrong because the employment growth, the job growth was what was driving the decline in the unemployment. >> jennifer: all right laura thank you for coming and take some sense of it all. you lawyer it here laura tyson

asking for jack welch to apologize to those workers -- >> and to the administration. >> >> jennifer: and everybody else. all right. political junkies, up next mitt romney's political compass stopped spinning long enough for him to change course again. the destination, the middle. plus what did swing states think about the debate and what do they think about the jobs reports. and what more could you want on a friday night? >> it's not 100%.

♪ >> jennifer: so today's jobs report may be the positive data point that president obama's reelection campaign needs to hang its hat on, but there is new post debate polling that is not very good news. 20% of registered voters say the debate made them feel more negative towards president obama. 30% say they now have a more positive impression of mitt

romney. and a representative for that poll included people who heard or read something about the debate. that same poll has the president leading among likely voters 46 to 44%. but before the debate president obama lead by 6 percentage points, so there is evidence the race is tightening. so we had to go right to the source of all polls for analysis, and we're joined by one of our favorite pollsters david merman. david thank for coming back inside "the war room." so let's just pull back for one second. how do you see the jobs numbers today shaking out with the debate performance this week? does that balance out? >> i think they are both important in different ways but over the long term i think the jobs numbers are more important.

the very narrow slice of swing voters we have in this race are trying to figure out are things turning around, and these numbers will help that significantly. we have seen continued growth, and if romney can't make a case on the economy that things are getting worse, it will be hard for him to catch up to obama. >> jennifer: how soon before we really get a sense of how the debate on last wednesday plays out? >> the numbers we saw today are not meaningless. the instant reaction is the reaction to the debate. and it's pretty clear that romney won in perception. that's different from actually winning votes. and we'll see some polling taken over the next few days which

we'll start to see on month. and we might see a little movement, but obama had a pretty clear lead so there is a room for a little movement. >> yeah, and gallop which was the daily tracking poll this week president obama hit 54% which is right over here. and it's the highest level for october. in fact what does it tell us about how people are viewing. as you can see that goes for a number of years. >> this is the most important number we saw this week. this is the turn in public perception. we have had a turn in the economy that has been developing over time. and the jobs number is part of that. this is fundamentally is the president doing a good job and leading us in the right direction, and throughout the last three years this has been what has been holding him down

and now we're over 50%. and if that number stays over 50 -- >> jennifer: that's the highest it has been in his whole term. >> that is very difficult for mitt romney to overcome. >> jennifer: okay the electoral map, we have some swing state polls, florida this is rasmussen and we ask america, two republican-leaning polls, but nonetheless you have romney winning in both of them in florida. >> they are both robo pollsters as well. and this is not necessarily reliable. i would wait a few day, but florida has been close all along. these are within the margin. i think we will be watching florida every day, every week until election day. >> jennifer: let's look at ohio. now in this rasmussen is only up

by one point. he has been ahead by as much as 10 points ahead. >> i don't buy these yet. we ask america has had polls a all over the map this year. so i would wait and see -- >> jennifer: when you say they have a republican skew is that because they are oversampling republicans? >> yes, and because they are robo pollers, it is way too easy to get older voters. so you have to see how the more legitimate live pollsters are doing. >> jennifer: okay. virginia rasmussen has romney leading as does ask america, this a key state. and this number is not very

helpful. >> yeah, i think like florida, virginia is a true swing state. so i'm not too surprised to see this come back. again, we want to see some polls to be sure. they are all within the margin of error, it's ohio i -- >> jennifer: i have to take you to nevada. this is gavus marketing poll. this just came out, 49 to 48%. and they have another one about colorado. and in colorado we have got obama 41 and romney 43 obviously a bit of number of undecided. these are both within the margin of error, but both a bit troubling. >> both of these states have seen fairly consistent -- narrow but consistent leads for obama over the last several weeks, but again, this is not one of the

leading national-most reputable pollsters you can take to the bank. >> jennifer: okay, so we have to wait and see what happens on month -- >> i think in the end not only the jobs numbers, but the approval number are the critical ones. >> jennifer: all right. thank you for bringing us the reality. and hopefully we get better news on month. up next if progressives don't have a clue on where mitt romney stands on the issues? how in the world are conservatives supposed to figure it out? i'm just saying. we're going to have j.d. hayworth who will play cat herder with this mitt romney fellow. and a sneak peak at the knew political thriller from after

fleck.

>> jennifer: well for weeks mitt romney stood by those 47% comments. the gop candidate said that he could have been more eloquent but he never once repudiated the contents of those comments. well, yesterday, surely as night turns to day, governor romney pulled yet another flip flop. so it is going to be really interesting to see how romney's new stance is going to go over

with his big conservative donors and right-wingers. he says that he was wrong. so i want to turn to phoenix and "the war room"'s one and only tea party republican, j.d. hayworth. j.d. great to have you back inside "the war room." >> thanks, jennifer. good to be with you. >> jennifer: curious what was your reaction when you heard mitt romney had yet another change of heart. >> i wouldn't characterize it as that, i would characterize it as sometimes you have to explain yourself better, it's always dangerous when you explain yourself -- when you are explaining you are losing but it seems to be a clear differentiation where mr. romney made it very clear, there is a difference in people who don't

support you electorally, there are places where i didn't get support -- >> what? >> i know it's shocking. and i dare say during your time as governor there were people who weren't supporting you, but you chose to be governor of all of the people. >> jennifer: i totally hear you. that's what he should have been saying. but there were conservative numbers in the republican party who actually did support mitt romney's 47% remarks when they first came out. some people are saying yeah that's the mitt romney we thought we elected. so how does that play with them? >> i quite frankly don't think it's that big of deal really. because we all know in an election campaign. the idea is you have your base,

you turn out your base and then you appeal to others and it's like inviting company over or applying for a job, you want to leave them with the best impression. president obama did the same thing with great success in 2008. >> jennifer: at the debate though, j.d. mitt romney made a clear tack to the middle and made even remarks about how regulation is good and all of that. i'm -- you saw it i'm sure. do you think that that ends up causing some trouble with the far right or the tea party right at all or are people just so excited that he won the debate that it doesn't matter what he is saying now? >> the most anti-regulation person among us, i guess that would be me understands the needs for stop signs and stoplights and dare i say it

even a federal communications board. so it not something where people want to see some sort of regulatory anarchy, and governor romney was very clear in saying look, we need reasonable regulation. so i don't think it's heresy for those on the right. >> jennifer: it is so interesting to me, j.d. that there's there moderate mitt seems to be acceptable to you. >> again, look it is a staple in politics. you have heard this since you took civics in the ninth grade. what happens in a general election campaign you win your party's nomination, you talk to people in the middle and cow say you know what i think we can work together. the idea is to attract votes. it's not a big mystery, jennifer. >> jennifer: yeah, i know it's not a big mystery at all j.d. it's the etch-a-sketch.

come on. what do you make of congressman ron paul saying he is not going to be voting for mitt romney? do you think that is going to have much sway? >> that's a curious situation i thought that dr. paul considering the fact that in his family the torch has now been passed to his son rand, i thought he might stay inside the tent for the general election but ron paul is ron paul. we wish him well. i think in the final analysis you will not see great throngs of the romneyians making that move to follow dr. paul out of the tent. i think most americans will see these two major choices and i believe the majority of americans will make the right choice for mitt romney. >> jennifer: well, whatever. that's why you are on here j.d. you are supposed to present that

side. if you were advising the mitt romney campaign, what would be your number one piece of advise right now? >> continue to run on a center-right platform. continue to reach out to every voter, and on to victory on election day. >> jennifer: you just keep drinking what you are drinking then. thank you, j.d. >> okay. >> jennifer: daniel day lewis could be described as one of our camera guys and i wouldn't even know it the master of getting into character tries abe lincoln on for size.

unleashed, joy behar. >> on my next show, i'll talk to tyne daly. she won the prestigious rush limbaugh's worst nightmare award. i don't think you knew that.

j>>

>> jennifer: the president might be having a little bit of a rough week at least with the debate performance. sorry, mr. president, followed by these tightening swing state polls, but if you are looking for some good news here it is. the president now leads among registered latino voters by 50 points. 70 to 20. and that group makes up a larger and larger share of the voters in the so-called new west. latinos now account for between 14 and 39% of all voters in colorado, nevada arizona, texas, and new mexico. some of these states are swing

states, and while texas and arizona are considered pretty safely red that actually could change with the demographics. the number of latino voters has been growing steadily across the country. 7.7% of eligible voters were latino in 1988. this year, 23%. for romney to overcome his unpopularity with latinos and other minorities he has to win 60% of white voters. and a republican strategist confirmed that quote this election is the last time anyone will try to do this. the last time. joining us now echaveste. she served as assistant to the president and deputy chief of staff for president clinton. she is now a political and policy strategist at mvg and a senior fellow at the center for

american progress. welcome back inside "the war room." >> thank for having me. >> jennifer: it's great to have you here because i think we need some forward looking news. arizona and texas both reliably red right now, although in september, the president came within three points in one poll in arizona leading many to say, wow, could arizona be the next swing state in this election? do you think if not in this one, in the next one, that those two states would be in the swing state category. >> this motivated a great number of hispanics in arizona to register and vote, and they succeeded in recalling for the

first time ever russell pierce who was the author of "1070." he made an even fort to get back on the ballot, and they defeated him again. there is currently an effort to not reelect sheriff arpaio. and then we have richard carmono running for the u.s. senate running as a democrat and he is giving -- >> jennifer: a run for his money. >> so if not this time, i'm cautiously optimistic about carmona. >> jennifer: and the backlash against this anti-immigrant series of legislation really could say, you know, it's the undoing almost of the republican strategy to be able to do that. do you think in terms of the republicans, it is a -- their efforts cannot be sustainable?

>> no i don't think they are efforts. i think they have been playing the short-term game. basically i'm going to worry about latinos when i really need to. but it is motivating people. and it's really important to understand that hispanics are just like any other american. they care about the economy, jobs health care, but when they feel attacked they are going to -- and what really want to register and vote. >> jennifer: absolutely. people get mad -- >> yes. and that's what is happening. >> jennifer: romney said before the debate to the denver post that he would support the president's giving work permits to young illegal immigrants and then just after the debate his staff walked it back immediately. is this --

>> that is very unfortunate on his part. in so many ways they have a message that could resinate with hispanics. they are entrepreneurial, many come from countries where they don't want the government involved. >> jennifer: the catholics -- >> very religious. thank goodness they keep making the mistakes. >> jennifer: there is an assumption on the part of the republicans that latinos don't vote. there was an "washington post" article that said the number one myth about latinos is that latinos don't vote. >> that is a myth. and you have to understand it's a much younger population and we know younger people don't vote. so when the median age of hispanics is 25 compared to

non-hispanic whites at 35, 37 you can understand why there would be this gap. but i think texas is really -- i'm counting -- maybe not in play in 2016 but definitely in play in 2020. it is -- >> jennifer: that's way too far away for me. >> i agree. >> jennifer: last question is the voter suppression efforts who could keep as many as 10 million latino voters away -- the courts seem to have been catching with up this -- >> i'm very concerned about that. there was a decision in florida that allowed the purge of non-citizen voters. this is almost ethnic cleansing, because how do you determine that someone on the voter poll is not state sen? you go by the name.

>> exactly. so there is still work to do. maria thank you for joining us and giving us some hope at the end of a rough week. up next don't think hollywood doesn't know it is an election year. some amazing films are hitting the theaters this fall i can hardly wait. and we'll run down the best of the best for you.

jennifer speaks truth to power. >>the bottom line is we need an amendment. >>now it's your turn. connect with "the war room" jennifer granholm. >>it's a call to arms. make your voice heard. obama has a dream. that the cities colonialism be

set right, and america be downsized. >> it has been a long time coming, but tonight because of what we did on this day, on this election, at this defining moment, change has become to america. >> jennifer: well that's a clip from "2018: obama's america." it's actually produced by dinesh d'souza. it's a documentary that examines president obama's early years for his alleged anti-capitalist beliefs. it has already earned nearly $33 million, which makes it the second-highest grossing documentary in history, behind michael moore's fahrenheit 9/11. a new tv movie is set to air on the national geographic channel just two days before the election. coming to us tonight from los

angeles to discuss is alonso duralde. alonzo is author and film critic for "the wrap." thank you for being here. >> thanks for having me. >> jennifer: do you think the president obama is happy that this movie is coming out right before the election. >> well, i think anything that reminds people of one of his -- what has become one of his signature achievements of his first term it certainly can't hurt. >> jennifer: seal team six was produced by harvy weinstein who is an ardent obama supporter,

but it is going to be aired ironically on fox. >> it may welcome down to a coincidence. i think it is the kind of thing that you can look at on the calendar and go hum. but so many of these things are so random that there could be any number of items in play. >> jennifer: there is another film about the bin laden raid and that's directed by katherine biglow, and that movie has been pushed back to december. why is that? >> it's a hard to say. nobody gives a clearance why nay moved it from october to december. some people surmised it had to do with not wanting to go before the election or it could be about the oscar campaign. you never know.

you may remember back in '84, there was talk that the right stuff was going to make john glen our next president, and that didn't exactly happen and the movie's box office suffered because people thought they were going to be seeing a political ad. >> jennifer: right. well let's get to the movies here. i want to show a clip of "lincoln." take a listen. >> it is on the world stage now. the faith of human dig any the is in our hands! is this moment now! now! now! >> jennifer: what is the buzz on that one? >> nobody has seen it yet. so there isn't any. there is already oscar rumblings about daniel day lewis, but know one has seen the film yet.

i'm interested that tony kushner is writing the script. so we'll see. >> jennifer: and there is another one coming out about fdr too. but before we go i want to show everybody a clip from the ben affleck political thriller argo which is coming out neck week. >> that's right. >> it would celtics. there aring only bad options. it's about finding the best one. >> you have a better bad idea than this? >> this is the best idea idea we have sir by far. >> jennifer: i totally love the movie sorry seen this preview a number of times at the theater. what is the premise of this movie? >> this is based on a true story. to get six people who managed to speak out of the american

embassy in tehran and they created identities for these six americans hiding out in the embassy. so basically it's this entire phony movie that existed only as a cia operation to rescue americans stuck in iran. the idea that jimmy carter is getting more and more credit for now, having a foreign policy that is more about negotiation or intricate intelligence and not merely let's go invade. >> jennifer: so alonzo i'm always so fascinated by political films that are based in reality, and that one is. have you heard the buzz about

that? has that gotten some early good reviews? >> very much so, yeah. i haven't seen it yet, but my partner dave white saw it at the premier last night, and was raving about it. and apparently very true and captured what really went down in that operation. >> jennifer: i love it. any other political ones that are on your to-see list? >> that's looking like what we have got between now and the end of the year. the bill murray performance as fdr has been getting a lot of talk too. >> jennifer: i'm excited about that one too. alonso duralde thank you so much for joining us inside "the war room." up next, we'll go from hollywood to off, off, off off broadway. >> coming up the week with jokes

smiles and winks. ♪ (vo) what is said here could decide the election. current tv presents coverage of the vice presidential debate. with unrivaled analysis and commentary. >> the idea that he could criticize the president on the down grading, when he led the charge to block a resolution. outrageous. (vo) the only network with real-time reaction straight from the campaigns and from viewers like you. >>now that's politically direct.

♪ >> jennifer: for our mitt moment tonight i want to introduce you

to this fantastic website roboromney.com. you just click some boxes to signify your positions on all of the hot issues of the campaign and it generates real romney video to support your position. personalized, computerized, flip flopping, it does not get more romney than that. all right. from big bird to small unemployment, this week has had its highlights and low lights. and brett ehrlich is here to make light of it all. so shhhh, brett's talking now. >> oh, what a week it was. let's go through it like thai good through a digest shun system. monday. nothing happened. >> tuesday. >> nothing happened. wednesday. >> the debate happened. and after vowing to pull money from the beloved children's

show cookie monster said i never felt this violated and i had had a man's hand um my bomb for the last 30 years. and this came right on the heels of a large donation mitt romney received. from a miss dorat explorer. >> thursday. nothing happened. friday >> the jobs reports came out. and here is how that news was received by the romney camp. ♪ >> be quiet it's the unemployment numbers.